What a weekend! Satya Nadella continued to impress saving his stock price; he's like the Michael Jordan of tech CEOs. His decision to hire Sam after OpenAI wouldn't take him back was a stroke of genius. Bravo to Satya for truly enhancing the user experience for his customers (credit to David Gonzalez for pointing this out):
It's like a seamless drama shield. You call the Azure API, and there's no need to fret about whether you're dealing with OpenAI or Sam Altman's new group. Azure has got your back.
So, what happens next for OpenAI employees?
Well, it's a bit of a letdown that the Thrive Capital shares aren't arriving anytime soon. There's a pressing need to slam the brakes on that to fully grasp how things will pan out. The vision is undergoing a reset, and it's likely that some of you might consider quitting. Plus, Sam played a crucial role in all of this capital, and now he's out. This move shows a lack of foresight by those who decided to oust Sam. They could have waited until the employees had their shares sorted out. However, had that happened, I think attrition would have accelerated, as employees wouldn’t feel trapped anymore. Most could leave and take their time, months or even years, to plan their next steps.
As for Microsoft hiring Sam? That's simply brilliant. Bravo, Satya! I'm really impressed that you managed to convince him to join instead of starting his own venture. Satya must have given Sam carte blanche within the $3T Microsoft ecosystem. Want to start an AI chip company? Sure. Eager to move things along faster? Absolutely. Thinking of poaching anyone from OpenAI? Why not.
It's going to be intriguing to see if OpenAI responds to a potential exodus to Sam’s new team within Microsoft. Will OpenAI send Microsoft a cease and desist to stop the hiring spree? I doubt it. You wouldn't want to anger them and risk having your computing resources cut off even sooner.
My prediction? I believe Microsoft will rapidly develop a suite of competing products. It's in their best interest to pull this off sooner rather than later. By doing so, they can redirect their investments and computing resources from OpenAI to their own internal offerings. This would leave OpenAI to fend for itself in raising capital to fill the void which may be more difficult now.
The future hinges largely on the decisions of OpenAI's employees. This raises the age-old dilemma of individual needs versus the collective good. If OpenAI's staff resists quitting, your Thrive Capital shares might still materialize, albeit at a lower valuation. However, if a significant number leave, investors might shy away from backing the company. I'm curious about how secondary share groups are reacting to this situation. Personally, I would consider selling my shares on the secondary market.
As for the new interim-CEO Emmett Shear? According to Justin Kan, 'Emmett is the smartest guy I know.' That's great for streaming, but what about when it comes to AI? Well at least it wasn’t a lawyer for a CEO, believe me it could have been much worse.
This weekend, I was reminded of the saying, 'Smart people do dumb things ALL the time.'
Overall? This shake-up is actually good for the market. OpenAI was the undisputed leader, but this situation will likely spur the creation of many more AI startups and help distribute the center of AI power more broadly. In the long term, my money's on Altman, and I anticipate continued attrition at OpenAI over the next 12 months. Recruiters are definitely going to sense an opportunity here, they love blood in the water.